COVID-19: Thursday July 9th

It's not because we increased testing, smoking, antibodies, smell and taste, baking your N95 mask and increased isolation recommendations.

1. We ended yesterday by setting another record, 61,848 new cases for the day in the US. Because I am getting this question a lot and seeing people say, "yes but the increase in numbers is due to an increase in testing" I want to speak to that. The increase in numbers is due to an increase in cases - not testing. This is monitored a host of ways but the two simplest are to compare the rate of testing increase to the rate of case increase. We haven't tripled the testing being done but we have tripled the daily case count over the last 3 weeks. And, we have seen the % of positive cases increase. So if testing increased but actual cases hadn't the % positive would actually drop - at best remain the same. I.e. 10% of people tested are testing positive. But that % has actually increased significantly. The numbers are increasing. It is not due to an increase in testing. There are additional ways we determine this that I can share if interested.

2. Another study came out looking at smokers and COVID. This one (available via PubMed for those who are interested) showed a negative association between smoking and COVID - which aligns with what most of the others have shown as well. Meaning - there is something about smokers that seems to lessen the effect. We aren't quite sure what, and people don't like saying it because it seems counter-intuitive, but the running theory is that smokers lungs are damaged in just the right way that the virus can't quite get in there and do its thing. More people are studying it and I don't recommend taking up smoking but for now, it does seem like smoking is not a risk factor.

3. The Lancet published an article out of Spain showing the majority of people they randomly tested were still negative, even in hot spots. They randomly tested 61k people, only 4.6% had antibodies.

4. A study conducted in Italy found 64% of COVID patients had altered sense of taste or smell. 89% reported it returned to normal after a month.

5. Researchers out of Harvard and Stanford have proposed a method of decontaminating N95 masks. They suggest using a convection oven. "Baking" the masks at 185 degrees F with 60-85% humidity for 30 minutes seems to be safe and effective for decontamination. The masks are good for 5 cycles of this.

6. Researchers in India looked at viral persistence in the upper respiratory tract (i.e. the virus is inside the person and replicating) in both symptomatic and asymptomatic people. On average viral persistence was 9.18 days. However, a quarter of asymptomatic people remained infectious for beyond 2 weeks. Being less than 60 yrs old was the biggest factor in having a longer infectious period. (meaning people under 60 and asymptomatic may be infectious longer) They are recommending extending the isolation time from 2 weeks to 3 weeks in India. This was a pretty small study so I wouldn't go changing anything just yet but it does point us in a direction for additional research.

FINAL THOUGHTS: Yesterday I heard someone say, "It's just killing old people" and I had to practice some serious self-control. First, that isn't true. But more importantly, what kind of society doesn't value those upon whose shoulders the nation was built? Those who have gone before us and laid the groundwork. To all the "old people" I want to say thank you. Thank you for fighting in World War II and enduring the Great Depression. Thank you for caring for our children, running our country while we were still swinging on the monkey bars, for changing our diapers and raising us. Thank you for marching with Martin Luther King, for landing on the moon for inventing television, and radio and producing musical greats like Tina Turner, Nat King Cole and Elvis Presley. Thank you for the Volkswagen bug. Thank you for all you still do today and the million ways you keep us afloat. Thank you for your wisdom and perspective and support. And I apologize for people who have made you feel devalued. Today, I wear my mask in honor of you.