COVID-19 Tuesday, August 18th

Saliva tests, temperature screenings, R0, incubation period and deaths.

1. A new saliva based rapid test has gotten EUA approval from the FDA. This could help speed up test results and increase their availability. The new test was created by Yale School of Public Health and is believed to be much easier and cheaper than current tests. The test reports sensitivity and specificity of 97% and 100% respectively which is much higher than many of the currently used tests so it should provide better accuracy. Yale has made the tests low cost (around $10) and open source so that other places can mimic their process.

2. Temperature screenings will not catch asymptomatic and pre-symptomatic carriers even though they are able to transmit the disease. It is worth noting that some people will get sick but never develop a fever or will develop a low-grade fever only.

3. Current R0 estimates are 3 – meaning each COVID positive person spreads it to 3 other people. Super spreaders are of course the exception. There is a working theory that only 20% of people actually spread it – but this is a working theory only that has not yet been peer reviewed and would warrant considerably more research.

4. A cross-sectional and forward follow-up study published in Science Advances suggests the incubation period may be slightly longer than previously thought. They found incubation periods of 7.76-14.28 days. Meaning the time from exposure to onset of illness could be a little longer than expected.

5. New deaths over the last 2 days have been in the 500’s, that is ½ what we have been seeing and a bit of good news.

FINAL THOUGHTS: I was changing out some light bulbs yesterday and I dropped one. I let out a little gasp in that way that you do and the world seemed to slip into slow-mo while I watched it fall and waited for the inevitable smashing of glass. Much to my surprise the smash didn’t come, in fact, the bulb hit the ground and bounced a bit before hitting the wall and coming to a rest. I was shocked. Apparently, somewhere along the way the world switched to plastic light bulbs and I completely missed it. I do remember when they announced “regular” light bulbs wouldn’t be available anymore. What I remember from that time was that people stockpiled them and there was great angst and upset and not being a light bulb connoisseur myself, I was unsure of why we were upset but I knew something unpleasant was happening. But here we are in the age of LED bulbs that you can drop, and they won’t break. You might say that light bulb moment caused me to have a light bulb moment. Change is hard. For some, it is much harder than others. Unwanted change is even harder. But sometimes really wonderful things come out of change, no matter the catalyst for the change. Sometimes, being forced to do things differently, brings about unexpectedly beautiful things. Today let’s look for the beauty in this situation, the moments of tender kindness, moments of neighbors helping neighbors or communities rallying together to support one another. The quiet moments of self-sacrifice. Moments of generosity, innovation, and discovery. Today, instead of looking at the ashes of what was, search for the beauty that will rise from those ashes.