COVID-19 Update: Friday, April 9th

Some perspective on the numbers

I have heard some alarmist reports regarding the numbers - so much so that I actually triple-checked my numbers to see if I had made a mistake somewhere. I want to provide some perspective to the current US numbers and a little reminder about vaccines.

1. Current numbers in the US are increasing. This is true. And we have seen two weeks of increase, which is the epidemiological marker for a true increase and not just random fluctuations. But the increase is small. (charts below)

2. We expected this. Some of the increase is due to places opening up, schools going back to face to face in places where they were not, spring break gatherings, and reduced restrictions in areas dropping mask mandates and other COVID restrictions. Some places are resuming public gathers etc. So those things are inevitably going to lead to a little surge. Completely expected and not yet alarming.

3. The UK variant is now the dominant variant in the US. The UK variant is more transmissible and more deadly than the prior version we had (aka the "original"). This fact alone means we are going to see more cases, the virus is spreading more easily among the unvaccinated.

4. These things combined mean we would absolutely expect to see numbers start climbing a little. And that is what is happening, they are climbing a little nationally. Now there are places where the numbers are really surging (Ohio, what in the world is going on out there??) but generally speaking, the increases are not yet alarming. Certainly, we are headed the wrong way, but again, I won't worry just yet about a 4th wave. It may come, but it may not.

5. It truly is a race between how fast we can get people vaccinated and how fast the virus can spread and mutate. As a reminder, if you are vaccinated it means you won't die from COVID. But you may still get it. The vaccine is not 100% effective. So if the vaccine you got is 95% effective it means you still have a 0.5% chance of contracting COVID. Do not let this alarm you, 0.5% is pretty small, the odds are in your favor. But it is possible, particularly as we start to encounter variants the vaccines weren't built for. So just keep that in mind.

FINAL THOUGHTS: Earlier this week I got up and threw on some jeans. They were tight. Like, suck it in and pull hard sort of tight. I wore them anyway but I walked around the whole day feeling bad. Not because they were uncomfortable, but because I could not figure out how I could have possibly gained enough weight that my pants no longer fit. It was discouraging and demoralizing and it bugged me throughout the day. It cast a bit of a shadow over the day - not lay in the shower and cry sort of shadow but just a blah sort of feeling. That night when I took the pants off I noticed something....they were a size smaller than I typically wear. They were my hopeful jeans. You know the ones - the ones you hope one day to be able to wear. Suddenly, I was thrilled. Suddenly the jeans weren't a failure but a wild success and I was tickled pink. I went to bed with a wide grin on my previously sullen face.

The jeans had not changed. Honestly, nothing had changed other than my perspective. I got up the next day and wore them again....(I know that probably grosses some of you out but I was celebrating). That day, I wore them with great joy. Gone was the cloud over my head. And of course, I was reminded that sometimes what needs to change is our perspective. We need to adjust the way we are seeing something, alter our attitude, - and everything will change to go with it. Today, check your perspective and see if you can alter it, it might just let you step out of the clouds and into the light. Have a wonderful weekend!