COVID-19 Update, Friday, January 8th

Pfizer and UK variant, Asymptomatic spreaders, the impact of in-person classes, how long does immunity last, allergic reactions and charts.

1. Pfizer has found that their vaccine will work against the UK variant, this is good news. No word yet on the South African (SA) variant. Current thoughts are that while the vaccines may be less effective against the SA variant, they should still provide some protection. This is currently being studied.

2. A new study published yesterday in JAMA says that over 1/2 of the cases of COVID are being spread by people who are asymptomatic.

3. According to the CDC, cities in the US with large colleges and universities who opted to do remote learning saw a "17.9% reduction in COVID-19 incidence, while those that continued in-person classes saw a 56% rise, according to research comparing 21-day periods before and after classes commenced."

4. Research released Tuesday suggests that we could have 5-7 months of immunity once we get COVID. This is, of course, early information so it may change. The changes we would expect to see would be for that number to lengthen- meaning longer immunity. Other studies also suggest that vaccine immunity is lasting longer than natural immunity but those findings are still too early to be sure so stayed tuned for more on that. Finally, remember that about 10% of people aren't developing immunity at all. This is completely normal - odd but normal. Unfortunately, there is no way to determine if you will be one of the 10% who doesn't develop immunity, other than doing an antibody test, so continuing to take precautions is important.

5. You may soon be able to get vaccinated at the pharmacy. Plans are rolling out around the country to provide COVID vaccines at your local Pharmacy. So watch for more information on that.

6. Several studies have come out this week with conflicting information regarding if having severe or mild COVID generates better immunity. Some studies found that those who had severe cases had stronger immunity and other studies found the exact opposite. This can be confusing and can mean that what we think today is proven wrong tomorrow. This is the scientific process at work. One study doesn't prove something, it points us in the direction of other studies to look at the same thing and see if they find the same thing. We refine the research and improve until we get an answer that is definitive. Frustrating to those watching the process and waiting for the answer, but a very natural, normal part of the process. So despite what we believed yesterday - this is now something we can't really answer yet. And in fact, we may find there is no link - that it is more about the person than the virus. But for now, we just don't know.

7. One of the highest read articles on JAMA is an article helping healthcare workers deal with COVID and vaccine misinformation.

8. Currently, the rate of allergic reaction to the Pfizer and Moderna vaccines is 10x higher than allergic reactions to the flu vaccine. This sounds alarming but keep in mind that out of 5 million vaccines given (to date) we have seen 29 allergic reactions. So we do want to be mindful of it, but don't let the headlines unnecessarily alarm you.

9. I have included three charts today to help you visualize the rate at which we are both cases and deaths are increasing. Chart 1 is a visual of deaths by month. It is evident that December saw a significant increase. Chart 2 is the case change from week to week. It is important to note that on this chart the December 25th numbers were done slightly later in the day than usual due to the holiday - so some of those numbers would normally have gone on the next week's reporting. This makes the December 25th bar on the chart a little higher than it truly is. Instead, it should be a little lower and the following week's bar would be slightly higher. This effect is minimal but I do want to mention it for the sake of transparency and accuracy. Either way, our pace per one million is increasing (meaning we are adding a million cases faster than we were before). We are headed in the wrong direction. Chart 3 is the new deaths from week to week. Like chart 2 the December 25th numbers are slightly higher because they were pulled later in the day than normal. This causes it to appear like there is a bigger drop the next week than there really is. Again, it is a minimal effect but an effect none the less. (none of this impacts chart 1)

FINAL THOUGHTS: This has been a difficult week by all measures. Time to decompress a little. I want to once again encourage you to take some time away this weekend. Time away from negativity, social media, news, etc. Think about what might be fun and relaxing to do. Maybe it's snow sledding, or painting, or playing cards, or watching a movie, or strumming a guitar, or building a cabinet. Whatever it is, make time for it. Prioritize it. You have done amazing things and you have helped people you don't even realize you have helped. You have made a difference. You have. To keep doing it you have to refresh and renew. As much as I would like to say this is nearly over, it isn't. So take time for the things that really matter. Take a break and find a way to have a little fun. I'll see you back next week.