COVID-19 Update: Friday, July 17

Friday=Numbers, masks, increases among children, serology, prisons, recommendations – there is a lot here today, plus a few charts/graphs for good measure. I got a bit lengthy.

NOTE: I added two charts today. One that visualizes excess deaths and one that allows you to see how your state is doing compared to others this week. I also put in a link to an interactive map/chart that will show you how your specific county is doing compared to others in your state.

1. Globally we hit 13.97 million cases. We will surpass 14 million today. Total deaths globally is 593k with a case fatality rate of 4.25 (higher than the US average of 3.82).

2. In the US we set another record yesterday with 73k new cases in a single day. Some trackers report 77k – the discrepancy is entirely due to which time zone they are operating on so don’t let that throw you. The US added an additional 475k cases over the week and 5,297 deaths. While these numbers are large and significant, our case fatality rate dropped significantly from 4.22 to 3.82 which is great news. That puts us well below the global average. We are doing much better keeping people alive. However, as our system becomes overwhelmed this may change. You may also recall that the CDC predicted 148k deaths by the end of July at a time when that number seemed highly unlikely. But we are mid-July with 141,125 total deaths in the US. There model appears to be accurate and we seem to be slightly ahead of schedule. Over 100k medical professionals in the US have or have had COVID. And just as a reminder, the flu kills, on average, 31k people a year – COVID has killed 141K in under 7 months. Here is the link to a great map that shows the breakdown by county so you can see how your county is doing for those who are interested. https://www.cdc.gov/covid-data-tracker/index.html#county-map

The University of Washington’s Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation is now predicting 224k deaths by election day. However, they report universal mask usage could reduce that by 40k deaths.

*The weekly summary of % Cause of Death (COD) and other pertinent data (that I normally use for analysis to share) which is published each Friday by the CDC has not yet been updated this week. This includes hospitalization rates, % COD, virology data etc. I will update this once if is available. (it isn't late until noon).

3. Cases among children have increased from 2% to 6.4% of total cases although they still only represent 0.3% of deaths – which is good. Individual state counts vary with states like California, Mississippi, and Florida reporting higher cases among children than the national average. Many of these cases remain mild to moderate. A reminder that symptoms among children can include: cough, fever, shortness of breath, sore throat, diarrhea, muscle aches, fatigue, runny nose, vomiting, stomach pain, conjunctivitis, and/or rash. However, a study out of Italy suggests that up to 80% of children with COVID may be mild or asymptomatic.

4. More than 300 workers in at Los Angeles Apparel (a garment manufacturing company) have tested positive.

5. A study published in JAMA looked at cases pre-masking requirement compared to post universal masking requirement among healthcare workers and found a 0.49% decline per day after universal masking was required. The infection rate went from 21% pre-intervention to 11% post intervention/end of the study.

6. In a study (published July 9th in JAMA) of previously hospitalized COVID patients, 90% of them still had 1 or more systems 2 months or longer after onset and more than a month after hospital discharge. Some physicians anticipate patients may require follow-up for a year, depending on case severity. Fatality rates should not be the only measure of severity. Based on the collective research available, it is becoming evident that long-term effects are likely and illness duration can be significant. Important to note this was a small study so further research is needed.

7. The CDC is no longer going to recommend doing 2 post tests for those who have recovered due to test shortages and back-logged tests.

8. Due to the inaccuracy of serology tests (the tests designed to identify if you had COVID in the past) are losing credibility among healthcare workers and researchers.

9. Case rates among prisoners are 5.5 times higher than the general population.

FINAL THOUGHTS: We have survived another week and most of us are heading into record heat waves for the weekend, so that should be fun. Seems like a great time for a water-balloon fight, a dip in the pool, a trip to the lake, or a few hours with the sprinkler. Take a break from COVID this weekend, take a break from social media, take a break from the news. Instead, make homemade Popsicles, eat a pint of ice cream, just sit in the sun with your feet soaking in a bucket of cold water, or lay on the couch in the AC and pretend nothing else exists. It doesn’t really matter what you choose to do as long as it is stress-relieving and fun. Dare I even suggest decadent. You need a break; you deserve a break. We can only push ourselves so hard and so far. You have done great this week. Now rest, recover, and renew because Monday is coming.