Covid-19 Update: Friday, July 31st

Numbers, sports, seaweed, diabetes, vaping, and opening schools.

1. Global Numbers: Globally we added 1.8 million cases this week and 40k deaths. That represents a decrease in global deaths and the Case Fatality Rate (CFR) dropped from 4.06 to 3.87 – meaning 3.87% of all people who get COVID die from it. We continue to improve at keeping people alive. Vietnam had its first locally transmitted case in 100 days.

2. In the U.S. we added 464K new cases this week and 7.9k people died from COVID. This represents the 3rd consecutive week that deaths have increased and the 3rd consecutive week that total cases have decreased. Our CFR dropped for the 9th consecutive week. It went from 3.53 to 3.35%. This varies by state, of course, South Carolina reported a 41% increase in deaths over 7 days.

Currently, total US deaths attributed to PIC are 9.1% - meaning out of everyone that died last week from anything, 9.1% of them were classified as pneumonia, influenza, or COVID. Remember, all-cause mortality is based on official death certificates and not the outbreak numbers. PIC is a high level “batching” process to make data searchers easier for researchers. This number is significantly delayed and will change as additional death certificates are received and reviewed from the states. Parts of Florida have had to close testing centers due to the tropical storm/hurricane which could impact their numbers.

We have an 8.6% positivity rate in the US for this week, meaning 8.6% of all people tested are positive. That of course varies by state (see Georgia positivity rate below). Cases among 0-4-year-olds saw a slight increase last week although it is still lower than all other age groups. Hospitalization rates have increased for the 3rd consecutive week. Hospitalization rates per 100k by age = age 0-4, 11.2 per 100k, age 5-17, 5.8 per 100k, age 18-29, 47.1 per 100k, age 30-39, 77.2 per 100k, 40-49, 121 per 100k, age 50-64, 182.3 per 100k, age 65+, 338.2 per 100k . Hospitalizations among Hispanic or Latino children ages 0-17 is 7.5x higher than non-Hispanic or Latino children.

3. The Maryland Terrapins had to suspend voluntary workouts after nine of their athletes and staff tested positive for COVID. The Ohio State also had to pause workouts due to positive cases and the University of Iowa just did the same after two players tested positive. (OSU did not release their numbers).

4. New data tells us that low-income communities of color are seeing 8x more COVID and 9x more deaths that low-income white communities. Lots of people are trying to determine why but one working theory (aside from possible genetics) is multi-generational housing. We are seeing more cases of those in their 20’s (often essential workers) giving it to older, more vulnerable populations.

5. According to a study published in the journal, Cell Discovery, Seaweed extract may work better than remdesivir to treat COVID. But before we get too excited, it was a theory based on in vitro (meaning in a test tube) findings. Something to watch.

6. John’s Hopkins released a statement concluding that masks most likely provide at least some level of protection to both the wearer and those around them. In related news, BMJ reports that wearing masks does not cause people to take fewer other precautions such as distancing or proper handwashing.

7. The prevalence rate of diabetes and hypertension among COVID patients is lower than we thought. Meaning they may have slightly less impact than we thought. Currently, 12% of COVID patients have diabetes and 17% have hypertension. These are global numbers. But the UK is reporting that obesity may play a bigger role than we thought.

8. Some reports are suggesting that 30% of critically ill patients with COVID experience blood clots. Smoking and vaping both increase this risk. See the International Journal of Molecular Sciences and Nature for more details on this.

9. Jefferson City Schools in Georgia open today for face to face classes. They are among one of the first US school systems to do so. Currently, Georgia has a 13.3% positivity rate. The WHO recommends not reopening schools until positivity rates are 5% or lower for 14 days. Jefferson City Schools serve about 3,500 students. They have published their safety measures online. They will be providing each staff, teacher, and student with one face mask but will not be requiring their use.

FINAL THOUGHTS: It's Friday! Time to plan for how to unplug day. It was a rough week for many of us but we made it. As you head into the weekend I want to remind you that this is just a virus. We are getting better and better at managing it and survival rates are improving from where we started. We should not live in fear. Be informed, get facts but not fear. Do not be afraid. Recognize the risks and navigate them. Give yourself mental breaks. Step away from those posts that drive you mad. Mute people on social media as you need to. Protect your mental health the same way you do your physical health. Consider turning off social media and the news to be the equivalent of donning a mask when you go out for groceries. You need breaks. Zoom with family and friends and refuse to discuss the virus, or politics. Do something physical because your body craves it and it clears your mind. A walk, a hike, boating, fishing, dancing around the living room, tearing out a bathroom that needs replacing, swimming, chopping down a tree, repairing an engine, surfing, running, baseball in the backyard, baking cookies for later (baking cookies is a win-win). Whatever it is, find something that isn't news, TV, the internet or social media and do it. You did great this week, time to recharge.

Today's 1918 newspaper clipping shows us that even then people had trouble wearing their masks right.