COVID-19 Update: Friday, November 6th

Today it is both long and difficult so do a mental health check first.

Minks, Greece, frontal lobe, House report, mutations, masks and 10 million

1. Denmark is killing off all the minks in the country because of COVID. As you know, we can pass COVID to some animals, minks are one of those animals. As you may also know some animals can then transmit the virus back to us – again, minks appear to be in that category. But when the virus comes back to humans from minks – it is mutated in a way that was concerning. So Denmark decided to kill all their minks in order to prevent a dangerous mutation from spreading around the globe.

2. On Saturday, Greece will enter into a 3-week nationwide lockdown in order to get ahead of rising numbers.

3. Recent studies show that for those who experience neurological systems associated with COVID it is because the virus is interrupting the electrical impulses in the frontal lobe of the brain. That does not change the way we live but it is interesting.

4. A COVID sub-committee within the House released a report suggesting that there have been at least 47 instances of interference in the recommendations put forward by scientists – the report suggests that even the CDC website recommendations were altered by forces outside the CDC. The concern is that this “meddling” (their word not mine) could erode public trust. This report has not been independently verified.

5. We have all seen that numbers are increasing, and they are. And deaths are too – but that is expected. When numbers go up, it naturally means that deaths will as well. That is true of every disease that can kill you. While the numbers rising should concern you, CFR (case fatality rate) is still dropping, meaning cases are increasing at a rate higher than deaths are. While it may seem odd to say this is good news, it is. I put some charts below so can see the latest graphs of what is happening nationally. Just a reminder that death is not and should not be the only measure of severity.

6. A few strains of COVID have emerged that make the virus more easily transmitted – and these strains are now the predominant versions of the virus. This is somewhat normal in that, as we have discussed, viruses’ entire purpose is to find a host, multiply, and spread. They are exceptionally good at it. This virus is no exception and has done an excellent job at mutating to make it easier for it to spread, in fact, 99.9% of the circulating versions of COVID include this mutation (D614G) to make it spread easier. The mutation causes increased viral load in the nose and throat area so that infected people give off higher amounts of the virus. The good news in all this is that thus far it does not seem to make the virus any more lethal – just easier to spread. So those masks become even more vital. There is a great article about the mutation that was published Oct. 30th in the journal mBio if you are interested.

7. Only 33 states currently have some sort of mask mandates. As the virus increases in transmissibility – I would like to encourage you to wear masks. I am including a link to some useful mask facts and a good infographic. If you have been using a gaiter style mask I would like to encourage you to also consider different styles in settings where risk is higher. For example, when you are around the elderly, or in public for more than just a minute or two. I.e. gaiters may be ok when running into a grocery store to grab a gallon of milk when the store isn’t very crowded – but not a good choice when actually grocery shopping. Or, fold the gaiter over on itself to layer the material so there is added protection.

Also, I have had more than one person (try thousands – maybe a slight exaggeration but a bunch) say that the fabric of masks is too thin to do any good so I wanted to speak to that. First, theoretically, this is true if you are wearing a loosely woven fabric or single layer (thus the recommendation to fold the gaiter over on itself). But even a single layer is better than nothing. The issue is that the viral particles are smaller than the mask fabric weaving. But even then, the mask provides benefits. I have posted lots of research on masks and their effectiveness so feel free to peruse back through those – but most masks are either pleated (like the medical ones) or multi-layered and those layers and pleats overlap to provide that swiss cheese effect we have discussed. You need only look back to that Starbucks outbreak to see that masks work – remember that? A Starbucks became a super spreader location due to a woman who sat in the shop drinking her coffee – but not a single employee got it -they were all masked.

8. Finally, we will hit 10 million cases today – if we don’t, something shocking has happened. In anticipation of that, I have included a chart showing the number of days it has taken for us to add 1 million new cases - each time. Keep in mind I am preemptively adding in the 10 million date – there is the very remote possibility we won’t hit it until tomorrow in which case I will update it. Worth noting, the CDC predicted we would hit 240k deaths by Thanksgiving and we have hit that number slightly ahead of schedule – their modeling really is pretty spot on.

FINAL THOUGHTS: The week is ending on a low note and people are even more stressed than normal - or 2020 normal. Find some non-COVID, non-political things to do this weekend. Maybe a Hallmark movie is in order? Yes, yes I know they are cheesy and predictable, but couldn't we all use a little cheesy and predictable right now? Call and chat with a friend, grill out, paint the next Bob Ross masterpiece, read a good book - something, anything that isn't depressing, frustrating, or irritating, and don't' forget the cheesecake.

Some masks facts and a good infographic https://www.npr.org/sections/goatsandsoda/2020/11/03/929555568/coronavirus-faqs-are-3-masks-better-than-1-will-mouthwash-keep-you-safe?utm_source=Global+Health+NOW+Main+List&utm_campaign=d466fff1f7-EMAIL_CAMPAIGN_2020_11_03_02_55&utm_medium=email&utm_term=0_8d0d062dbd-d466fff1f7-3016733