COVID-19 Update: July 9th, 2021

A quick update on the state of things in the United States

Given our prior discussion on the Delta variant and if things really were "resurging" I wanted to give an update regarding numbers. You may recall, we have discussed that prior to saying we are seeing an increase we need to see that for two consecutive weeks. Well, now we have.

1. The US has seen a 15% increase over the last week and an overall increase over the last two weeks. Numbers are not as severe as they were in the fall, but they are increasing, which is not optimal. There are a host of possible reasons for this:

a) fewer people are masking and/or socially distancing

b) most places have fully reopened - increased socialization and decreased mask-wearing would naturally equate to an increase in cases.

c) the delta variant is now the dominant variant in the US. The delta variant is both more transmissible and causes more severe illness. So it is spreading easier and making people sicker which means more infected people may be seeking medical treatment than before. This would naturally increase the number of cases we know about compared to mild cases that may go unreported.

2. The overwhelming majority of hospitalizations and deaths are among the unvaccinated.

3. A new variant has also emerged which we should keep an eye on - the lambda variant, first identified in Peru last fall is not a VOC but a VOI (variant of interest). The interesting thing about it is that it seems to evade the vaccine. I have not seen reports of it being in the US yet (that doesn't mean it isn't, I just haven't seen that), but it has made it to Canada. Pay attention to this one and news pertaining to it.

4. Thus far the vaccines are holding out and experts say we will not need boosters, at least not yet. So that is great news. Researchers have also determined it is safe for people who got the J&J vaccine to get a one-shot dose of Pfizer should they find they need/want to. But that is not necessary for most people just yet and not yet officially condoned by the CDC/FDA.

FINAL THOUGHTS: I sincerely hope you are in a much better place this summer than you were last summer. I hope you have thrown your arms around people you hadn't seen in a while and that you have resumed more activities outside your home. I hope that life is getting a little bit back to something you feel good about. I hope you are well, safe, and happy. But I also hope you realize that COVID is not quite over and while we are eager for it to be so - our eagerness does not change anything - at least not for the better. The spread has slowed from where we were, the vaccine is working, things are getting better. But we need to be vigilant and not completely let down our guards. Many of us live in a mixed household (some vaccinated some not) continue to protect the vulnerable, don't give up just yet. You have come so far, endured so much, and been victorious - stay the course just a little while longer.

Two things to note regarding the charts. 1) just a reminder they represent the change in cases or deaths - not the actual number (they are not a count but a difference). These allow you to see how the counts have changed. 2) the case count chart here shows a slight decrease last week - but that number was artificially low due to the holiday. When they were adjusted with the reports (post-holiday reporting but pre-holiday infections) it went up. I had already saved the chart so it is slightly off.