COVID-19 Update, Monday, January 25th

Pandemic Fatigue, Is the new variant really more deadly?, Merck, Brazil, Moderna, and Israel.

1. Let's start with the UK variant. On Friday the chief scientist of the UK (basically their version of Anthony Fauci) made a statement that the UK variant was about 30% more deadly than the current strain. A few key things to note - it "may" be more deadly. We actually still haven't definitively determined this. But the evidence is strong enough for them to announce it and Fauci has agreed that it does appear so - so I would say that the evidence is pretty strong. This means we would expect the mortality to go from 10 out of every 1000 cases dying to 13 or 14 out of every 1000. When you also consider that the UK variant spreads at about a 70% increase over the current US variant it could be quite significant. In related news, travel from South Africa, Brazil, the UK, and 26 other European countries may soon be banned to keep the variants out of the US. (the UK variant is already here).

2. Pandemic fatigue is on the rise but it is worse in the South and Midwest. People are less likely to stay home, avoid gatherings, or visiting with friends but they are more likely to wear masks than earlier in the pandemic.

3. Merck did not have good results with their phase 1 clinical trials for a COVID vaccine and have now dropped out. They will instead focus on treatments.

4. The variant in Brazil is gaining attention and creating serious issues there.

5. European countries may soon change mask recommendations to only recommend medical-grade/style masks - not homemade ones. This makes sense given the increased ease with which the UK variant spreads and that it is more deadly. I just want to remind everyone that originally - there was a major medical mask shortage. So recommendations were to make home-made masks. (something they did in 1918 too). We did tons of research on all sorts of masks, fabrics, and fits to determine how well they worked. I posted links to many of these. Of course, we found that medical masks and N95's worked best - but homemade masks also worked with varying levels of protection. It stands to reason that as the virus changes to be more aggressive and more deadly that our face mask-wearing must also shift to the stronger, most effective options. You may want to plan ahead if you don't have any medical grade or N95 masks. This revised recommendation doesn't mean the homemade masks don't work, it just means it's time to upgrade. UPDATED: The following are considered medical-grade masks: A surgical mask, FFP2 or KN95/N95. Also note that this recommendation has not been made official or in the US.

6. Moderna reports that their vaccine IS effective against the UK and SA variants although not quite as effective.

7. Israel is rocking vaccine roll out and disease control.

FINAL THOUGHTS: I trust you are well-rested and ready for the new week. This week I want to challenge you to live. Don't just be alive. Live. Savor life. Thrive. All while socially distanced and masked, of course. :)