COVID-19 Update: Monday, November 30th

Welcome back. I thought I would start the week with a little vaccine update and some things to watch for the week.

1. Vaccine Update:

Moderna is now poised to formally request EUA approval from the FDA. I have not seen a specific date yet but the request should be coming in the next few days. In related news, the FDA will meet on December 10th to discuss the Pfizer request for EUA approval - the FDA is reminding people that the decision could take up to a week. (there is a lot to review so it just takes time). In the meantime, Pfizer has begun moving the vaccine into strategic locations to be able to distribute the first round in high population areas as soon as approval is granted. Roughly 20 million American's are expected to get the vaccine in December - there are 21 million healthcare workers.

Standard operating procedures in situations such as this (not that this is standard by any means) is for healthcare workers to be vaccinated first. In this case, we would then expect those over 65 to be vaccinated (because they represent the highest risk for serious complications). However, there does seem to be some dispute regarding who will receive the first doses as the Operation Warp Speed team is advocating for the elderly to receive the vaccine before healthcare providers due to the high mortality rate among that population. Another 25 million doses should be available in January.

Also in related news, other countries are starting to pre-order AstraZeneca's vaccine in hopes of mass dissemination as quickly as possible. India in particular has pre-ordered large quantities. You may recall that AstraZeneca's vaccine does not have the same storage and shipping requirements as Moderna and Pfizer making it a more viable option for some nations/areas.

2. Good news:

While the rate of cases has been steadily climbing our pace has remained consistent for the last 2 weeks and our deaths have not outpaced our cases, meaning they are increasing at the same rate -which is good.

3. What to Watch: there are a couple of things to monitor this week:

1. Watch for when we hit 14 million cases, this will give a sense of pace. If we hit 14 million today it means we are speeding up. If we hit it tomorrow, we are holding steady (pace-wise) and after tomorrow (Wednesday or later) we are slowing down, from a pace perspective.

2. Watch for spikes in the numbers starting tomorrow (Tuesday, December 1st - Thursday the 10th) this will show us what, if any, increase we are seeing due to Thanksgiving. Watch those numbers both nationally and at the local area.

FINAL THOUGHTS: I hope you had a wonderful Thanksgiving holiday and are rested and renewed and ready for the final month of 2020, a difficult year by all accounts. I wanted to assure you that while this won't be over this week, or even this month - we are heading toward a better place. By summer, things will look a lot more normal than they do now and my hope if you will have completely forgotten my name. We are in the last few months of this, stick with it. We can do it!