COVID-19 Update: Monday, October 19th

The Great Barrington Declaration, increases in cases, excess deaths and the NY philharmonic.

1. I would like to address the Great Barrington Declaration which is making its way around the internet, social media, and politics. The essence of the Declaration is a call to herd immunity and not lockdowns. The authors seem to promote a “return to normal.” This ideology is being embraced by many and creating a stir. As an epidemiologist, I want to weigh in on this. First, the majority of public health professionals/scientists are not calling for lockdowns or closures. We are calling for social distancing, hand washing, and wearing masks when out in public. In fact, Fauci recently shared that same sentiment publicly. We do not need to lock down, so in this regard, the Declaration is in alignment with the mainstream public health professionals and scientists. Secondly, herd immunity is the result of immunization – it is not a tactical approach to fighting infectious disease.

The Declaration declares that those without underlying conditions should just go ahead and “get it” in order to develop immunity and protect the vulnerable. The issues here are numerous but let’s just look at a few, a) the virus can cause sterility in men – so they are advising an entire generation of men to possibly develop reproductive problems, b) the virus can cause long term issues that can be significant and the extent of which we still don’t know, even in otherwise healthy individuals – so they are advising the majority of the population to put themselves at risk for long term, chronic health issues such as heart problems, respiratory problems, neurological problems, and mental health problems, c) you can catch it more than once and it can be more severe the second time – even in otherwise healthy individuals. We have no idea how long you will be immune after getting the virus. We are currently guessing anywhere from 1 month to 4 months after which you can get it again and again and again. That is not herd immunity, no part of that is herd immunity. In fact, there are emerging questions regarding how well the vaccine will even work because of waning immunity – right now the vaccine only has to demonstrate 50% effectiveness with no longevity requirement.

Finally (and I say finally meaning the final point I will cover, but by no means the final issue with this approach) d) the majority of people in the United States are not free of risk. High blood pressure, obesity, diabetes, and many other health issues greatly complicate things. And this does not account for those who have health issues they don’t know about. Herd immunity is not an option – it simply is not. Public health scientists are not advocating for lockdowns or shutting down businesses, we are advocating for people to go about their lives but to do so while wearing masks, washing their hands frequently, and distancing themselves from those outside their household.

2. Only 2 states are still reporting decreases in cases, Hawaii and Vermont. But be assured there is a surge around the globe, not just in America.

3. Between March and August, the US saw a 20% increase in deaths above what we normally see. The US death rate is very stable year over year but this year, we have seen a significant increase in excess deaths – meaning deaths above the expected number. About 65-67% of these were due to COVID, the rest were not directly related but could be connected, for example, people avoiding going to the doctor or putting off needed medical treatments, people drinking hand sanitizer, people not calling 911, increases in suicide, domestic violence and drug overdoses associated with isolation and quarantine, etc.

4. In case I failed to mention it last week, the NY Philharmonic has canceled their season for the first time in their 178 year history.

FINAL THOUGHTS: I know that life is frustrating and people can drive you mad, certainly my life is no exception to that rule. It can become exhausting and discouraging and....well, maddening. That is why we step away and takes breaks. I wish I could tell you this would be over soon - but it won't, in fact, we are heading into a very difficult season. More than ever we need each other. We need to take breaks from it. We need to raise a hand when we need help and we need to reach out and help others when we can. Stay strong, stay connected, and stay vigilant. You can run the race before you and there are lots of people to help. See the pain so that you might see where you can lend a helping hand, see the strengths so that you might get help when you need it, see the misinformation so that you might provide truth. See it, but don't let any of it be your focus. Instead, focus on that which is good, that which builds you up and encourages you. Stay plugged into encouragement and hope.