COVID-19 Update, October 23
- Ginger Cameron, PhD
- Oct 23, 2020
- 3 min read
Clarifying the numbers, most common symptoms, redefining close contacts, comparison to the flu and dashing hopes of eradicating the disease.
1. There has been a great deal of discussion lately regarding what direction the disease is going so I want to address that. We have been seeing an increase in cases consistently since Labor Day weekend. Hospitalizations are up slightly as are deaths. While some areas are reporting spikes, the bottom isn’t falling out just yet. I am attaching an updated chart on the case increase so you can see that for yourself. Also note that as cases increase it is expected that hospitalizations will as well, followed later by deaths. But our case fatality rate continues to go down which is good. Because Europe is also seeing an increase in cases I am inclined to think the increase is more about the virus and less about us, but that is observational at best and not something we yet know scientifically.
2. Long-COVID seems to be more common among people who experience more symptoms and in females. So for those who have relatively few symptoms (with or without cough) the risk is lower, for those who experience more systems (regardless of severity) tend to be more likely to have long-term issues. This is still something very much being studied but this seems to be what we are seeing at this point.
3. The CDC has redefined “close contacts” based on new and emerging evidence. Previously a close contact was someone you were within 6 feet of for 15 minutes or more. The NEW definition specifies those 15 minutes do not have to be consistent – so 15 minutes total over the course of a 24-hour period even if that is only 1 minute at a time. This change comes after a study, published in MMWR, found that people can be infected even after short interactions.
4. Among those hospitalized with COVID the most common symptoms were fever (81%), cough (62%), fatigue (38%) and loss of appetite (33%). High blood pressure and cardiovascular disease were the two most common co-morbidities.
5. A study published in Live Science found that COVID is 5x deadlier than the flu – so there’s that.
6. And finally, it is making news that scientists, specifically epidemiologists, are saying that this won’t be eradicated. I am not entirely sure why this is garnering attention or making news as we have been saying this for quite some time. There is only one disease in the history of diseases that we have eradicated – smallpox. I personally don’t know any epidemiologists who said we would eradicate COVID. We will however be able to manage it much better with time (we need time to develop effective treatments and preventions). Saying we aren’t going to eradicate it isn’t the same as saying it is going to be like this forever. My guess is that people are using "eradicate" incorrectly and are confusing it with "eliminate." We will eliminate COVID, or at least significantly decrease it. Things won’t be like this forever, that I can promise you.
I am attaching two resources, one is a guide to the different types of tests currently available - and how effective they are. The second is an overview of some of the different treatments out there. That changes by the minute (Remedisvir just got FDA approval and that isn't on the chart) but both serve as a nice starting point/general reference.
FINAL THOUGHTS: Some days are better than others. Some weeks are better. This was a rough week for me, and I can’t even really say why because I am not entirely sure, but it was. And the fact is, we all have rough days where we have just had enough. We are over it, all of “it”. Maybe you want to cry, maybe you want to scream, maybe you want to crawl in bed and pull the covers over your head, maybe you want to eat Oreo’s till you vomit, maybe you are doing just fine, or maybe you are doing just “fine” – in the scary everyone should hide sort of way. Wherever you are in all this today – it’s ok. The weekend is here and hopefully, you have plans to rest, relax, and renew. Because as my dear friend reminded me today – we must take care of ourselves so that we can care for others. This weekend make it about taking care of you. Make time for cheesecake - but not so much you vomit, that is a waste of cheesecake.
Comments