COVID-19 Update: Tuesday, September 14th

Explaining vaccine efficacy, why you shouldn't vaccines kids under 12 and a quick comment on boosters. Short and focused today.

1. I have run into people who are confused about what vaccine efficacy means, which is completely understandable as that is not something most people need to understand in their "regular" lives. So I wanted to just provide a quick explanation of vaccine efficacy - what it does and does not mean and then a short comparison.

Vaccine efficacy is how the vaccine performed in clinical trials. Pfizer's vaccine has a 95% efficacy rating. That means that it reduces your risk of contracting COVID by 95%. It does NOT mean you have a 5% risk after getting vaccinated. That is a very common misconception but vaccine efficacy is a relative risk reduction. What that means to you is that it tells you how much it reduces your risk. But your risk of getting COVID isn't necessarily 100% therefore a 95% reduction doesn't mean 5% risk remaining, it means it reduces your personal risk (whatever that may be from situation to situation) by 95%.

Here's an example, if you are a healthcare worker in a hospital, your risk of contracting COVID is higher than say an accountant who can work entirely from home and interact with all clients via Zoom or Google meet. For the sake of learning, let's assign random numbers to those. Let's say the healthcare workers' risk is 65% and the accountant's risk is 4%. The 95% efficacy of the vaccine is deducted from that. So for the accountant, their risk of 4% will be reduced by 95%. The healthcare workers' risk of 65% will also be reduced by 95%. But their remaining risk will not be identical. But risk isn't static, it fluctuates based on your activities, environment, who you are around etc.,

Next, let me just point out that 95% risk reduction is huge in the world of risk reduction. Compare it to seatbelt wearing for example. Wearing a seatbelt when in the front seat of a car reduces your risk of death from an accident by 45%. Most of us cannot even imagine getting in the car and not putting on our seatbelt. A 45% reduction is big. A 95% reduction is bigger. If you are interested - or just want to fact check that seatbelt stat you can do so here: https://www.cdc.gov/transportationsafety/seatbeltbrief/index.html#:~:text=Among%20drivers%20and%20front%2Dseat,of%20serious%20injury%20by%2050%25.&text=Seat%20belts%20prevent%20drivers%20and,a%20vehicle%20during%20a%20crash

2. Do not lie about your children's ages to get them vaccinated early. This is dangerous to the long-term health of your child. Most medications are metabolized in the liver, your liver is not mature/fully developed until approximately age 12. Giving a child under the age of 12 a medication intended for someone 12 or over can cause real damage, even if you don't see that damage right away. Consider smoking. Smoking causes damage to the lungs even though you don't necessarily see that damage immediately. Wait for the vaccine to be available.

3. Boosters are not something the vast majority of us need to be worrying about right now. That is all being sorted out but I want to offer a few small bits of information. First, needing a third shot (or a second for J&J folks) does not mean we will need shots every year forever. There are other vaccines that come in a series of 3 shots (hepatitis B for example) which are dependent on the spacing. Some early research says the one booster could very well be all we need. (of course variants and vaccine resistance play into that). So don't get discouraged about that.

Second - do not get it early (once we deem they really are necessary and available). The thing with the booster is timing. Your immune system needs time to do its thing. Going in early for a booster doesn't give your body time to complete the process. So IF we do end up needing boosters, be sure you don't go in too early, let your immune system have time to do its thing. Just like you needed 2 weeks after your final shot to be fully vaccinated. Your immune system needed two weeks to do all the things it needed to do to develop immunity and store that information.

Finally, remember that what they are saying is that that 95% reduction drops to about 86% and they want to boost it back up. But 86% is still really good. Consider Tdap is only 70% effective after 1 year and how many of us have had diphtheria lately?

FINAL THOUGHTS: I am currently trying to teach one of my children to drive. One of my dear friends is also teaching her child to drive. We compared notes. My friend's child took the written test and got their permit and my friend handed them the keys and let them drive home. Her child is driving all over, including on the interstate. My child is also driving all over, all through people's yards and over curbs. So I doubled down on my efforts and took my child back onto the roads. Well....really we may have spent more time off-road than on, but I digress. I felt like I needed a stiff drink afterward. I am not a great passenger to begin with so the experience left me a bit rattled and discouraged. It made me wonder what I was doing wrong, particularly when I compared us to my friend and her child's success.

Now, this isn't the first child I have taught to drive. I am not faint of heart. But I got a little bit discouraged and I skipped our driving lessons for a day or two. You see, comparison is the thief of joy. Sure sometimes things aren't going well and you need to re-assess, adjust and take a fresh look. Sometimes you need a break. Sometimes you need a change of perspective. But comparison can certainly steal your joy. Today I want to encourage you not to compare yourself to others - compare yourself only to yourself. Are you doing better today than yesterday? You're still here. You're still plugging and that deserves to be celebrated. It's time to slap "student driver" stickers on your car and get back out there!